Surprise, Surprise, Surprise
It’s official: The FBI thinks that there is an elevated risk of terrorist attacks this summer.
In the words of Gomer Pyle: Surprise, surprise, surprise.
This is the precise reason that many were so dismayed at the actions of the Spanish electorate after the Madrid railway bombings: By supporting Zapatero as the Prime Minister, the Spanish taught al Qaeda that a mass-casualty attack immediately prior to an election could influence the result of that election to benefit al Qaeda. The ousted Anzar had committed troops to Iraq, the incoming Zapatero immediately withdrew all Spanish forces from the region, causing the withdrawal of the Honduran contingent as well.
Now, with US elections coming up in November, is it any shock that al Qaeda might try the same tactic again? They have learned that it is costly to engage US troops on the battlefield, but by attempting to influence the American elections, they may succeed in having the American forces in Iraq withdrawn quickly (or at least ahead of schedule) for a far lower cost. If the new Iraqi government can be collapsed after a US withdrawal, al Qaeda will not only have removed a major American base of operations in the Middle East, they will have created a new base of operations for themselves.