There isn’t nearly enough reporting in the Western media on the current political situation in Iran, but what reporting exists is either very frightening or very encouraging, depending on one’s point of view. For some time, there has been debate between the Iranian Guardian Council and reformists in the government over the blacklisting of several thousand electoral candidates by the Guardian Council. Now, the New York Times is reporting that the standoff has heated up: The interior minister of Iran is arguing for canceling or postponing elections, stating that “There is no possibility of holding free and competitive elections, and we don’t consider this election legitimate.” Furthermore, 124 of the 290 parliamentarians in the Majlis have tendered their resignations. All the pieces are in place for a major political showdown between the reformists and the hardliners.
At least, that’s the common analysis. And it is correct, as far as it goes: It is simply that it doesn’t go far enough. What is happening in Iran is a breakdown of the ostensibly democratic system created to provide peaceful expression for the will of the people. Historically, democracy and negotiation have acted as a safety valve for social tensions — as long as people think they can negotiate and get what they want, they tend not to take up arms. Unfortunately, the Guardian Council’s actions have just taken that safety valve and wired it shut.
The significance of what’s happening in Iran isn’t so much that there is a political showdown, rather, it’s that the mechanisms of politics are on the verge of collapse. How often does the Interior Minister of a country declare that the elections of his own nation are illegitimate and cannot be trusted, weeks in advance of the results? One or two parliamentarians may resign here or there in melodramatic protests, but to have over a third of the parliament decide that the current system is useless is something entirely out the ordinary. Combine that with the fact that the leading reform party may announce a boycott of the polls at the upcoming elections, and you have a large segment of the population that has decided that the current state institutions are not acceptable venues for problem solving.
Between now and the elections on February 20, something in this standoff will give. It is possible that the Guardian Council will revise their ruling, and effectively give up control of Iran. It is also possible that the reformists will give in, and accept the results of the elections. However, right now I’m worried about the third option: The state itself will give in, and the current standoff in Iran will become far less political and far more tactical in nature. Throughout history, when people with a grudge stop talking to each other, it means they’re about to start shooting at each other.
It’s a good thing that we still have a major presence in Iraq, and the logistical train to support forces in the region. With the Iraqi government destroyed, and the Iranian government teetering towards radical reform or possibly collapse, the US may find itself at the center of a major power vacuum. Let’s hope that our planners in Iraq are thinking through what might happen if the two largest powers in the region collapse within 12 months of each other.
Update - 4 February
It appears that Ayatollah Khamanei understands exactly what’s at stake here. The Washington Post is reporting that Khamanei is trying both to rein in the Guardian Council and discourage parliamentarians from resigning. With any luck and some good work by Khamanei, the Guardian Council will back down, and the government will remain intact. Although I am no fan of the hardliners, a slow and peaceful shift of power away from the Guardian Council is far preferable to an abrupt and violent one.