Port 80

The last time I blogged (which was entirely too long ago), I wrote about the possibilities of a Chinese-EU partnership in the GALILEO satellite navigation system. None of the possibilities have been good, but with China’s recent demonstration of its space-launch capability, a substantially worse possibility has appeared: The destruction of the GPS system in the event of conflict between the US and the PRC.

The problem with GPS is that, although it’s a wonderful system, there are only 24 satellites in orbit. While this is a relatively large number, it is still a finite number, and vulnerable to ASAT [Anti-satellite weaponry] programs, which China is pursuing. (Astute readers will note that the linked article estimated the earliest Chinese manned spaceflight as occurring in 2005. Adjust your estimates of ASAT availability accordingly.) Furthermore, China (or any other aggressor) would not have to kill every GPS satellite to greatly impede US military operations. The GPS system requires multiple satellites overhead to give a position reading to a user. By simply bringing down a sizable portion of the GPS network, China could create “outages” in the GPS system - temporary holes in satellite coverage over particular regions.

While the US could probably fight a war without GPS, it would be a sharply different kind of war than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. The JDAM precision bombs that have seen so much use in Iraq and Afghanistan are guided by GPS signals, and would become unusable during periods of GPS outages. While laser-guided weapons are still an option, they are more limited than the JDAM in that their target must be illuminated by a laser designator - a difficult task through cloud cover or smoke. Weapons aside, the loss of GPS makes navigation - for aircraft, ground units, and naval vessels - a serious issue. It is entirely possible to navigate without GPS (contrary to the beliefs of some outdoorsmen), but the task becomes more difficult and less accurate.

Prior to the advent of GALILEO, the vulnerabilities of GPS were something of a moot point - while China might be able to destroy the GPS system, China would be handicapped by its destruction along with the United States, if not to the same degree. However, if China uses the GALILEO system for satellite navigation, the destruction of GPS would have no impact on Chinese operational capability. This is especially true if the current plans to make GALILEO interoperable with GPS fall through - the result would be a Chinese military using GALILEO-only receivers, and a US military using GPS-only receivers.

Europe’s participation in GALILEO makes an attack on GPS especially tricky, as the United States cannot simply attack the GALILEO network in retaliation. To do so would not only cut off Chinese access to satellite navigation, but also the access of the European Union, some of whom may be our allies in a conflict with China. Even if they are not, the diplomatic ramifications of destroying GALILEO would be exceedingly high, as the European Union will not simply “write off” multiple billions of dollars in satellites and launches.

What’s especially worrying is that this sort of tactic - dividing it’s technological base from the United States - is seeing increasing popularity in China today. In computers, China is sponsoring an Asian form of Linux at the same time that they are gaining access to the source code of Windows. (Bear in mind that Microsoft officials have stated under oath that releasing the source code to Windows could compromise national security.) China has even extended this approach to processors, giving the up the x86 base common to Western computer users in favor of a homegrown V-Dragon CPU. Which is, incidentally, designed to run Linux, not Windows.

Taken together, these incidents paint a clear pattern: China is actively working to separate its technological base from that of the US. Whether this policy arises from concerns about economic dependance, or a goal of strategic independence, remains to be seen. Either way, however, this trend bears watching. China is clearly not happy with its current place in the world. Let’s hope it only asserts itself by launching taikonauts into orbit.